Rigorous Reasoning

Concept · Foundations

Calibration

The property of having stated confidence match long-run accuracy — 70%-confident predictions should come true about 70% of the time.

Why it matters

Calibration is the Bayesian virtue that separates well-updated beliefs from overconfident or underconfident ones.

Where this shows up

Units and lessons using this concept

Following the links will take you to the page where this term is introduced in context.

Related

Other concepts in Foundations

A, E, I, O PropositionsAccessibility RelationArgumentAtomic StatementAuthorial IntentBase RateBayes FactorBurden of Proof in InterpretationCardinalityCartesian ProductCategorical PropositionCategorical Syllogism