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Likelihood · Rigorous Reasoning · Rigorous Reasoning

Concept · Foundations

Likelihood

The probability of the observed evidence on the assumption that a given hypothesis is true, written P(E | H).

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Why it matters

Likelihood measures how well a hypothesis predicts the evidence — not how probable the hypothesis is.

Where this shows up

Units and lessons using this concept

Following the links will take you to the page where this term is introduced in context.

Units (1)

Bayesian Probability: Updating Belief with EvidenceStudents learn the logic of Bayesian reasoning, including priors, likelihoods, posterior updating, base rates, and the disciplined use of…

Lessons (4)

Base Rates and Conditional ProbabilityBayesian Probability: Updating Belief with Evidence Bayesian Comparison of Rival HypothesesBayesian Probability: Updating Belief with Evidence Capstone: Bayesian Judgment on Real EvidenceBayesian Probability: Updating Belief with Evidence Priors, Evidence, and Posterior BeliefBayesian Probability: Updating Belief with Evidence

Related

Other concepts in Foundations

A, E, I, O Propositions Accessibility Relation Argument Atomic Statement Base Rate Bayes Factor Calibration Cardinality Cartesian Product Categorical Proposition Categorical Syllogism Circularity